Brit scientists have developed the first calculator that warns individuals of their personal Coronavirus risk.
Experts from University College London said more than 8 million high-risk people should remain indoors when the lockdown is lifted.
They claim protecting vulnerable Brits from the bug is the only way to keep the death toll below 73,000 in the next year.
And they warn excess fatalities could still rise to 400,000 if restrictions are lifted too fast and infections spiral out of control.
The Lancet study analysed 3.8 million health records.
It found the pandemic could trigger between 37,000 and 73,000 excess deaths within one year.
Researchers warn the risk of death among people with health conditions – such as heart disease or diabetes is five times higher than in healthy Brits.
And those over 70 are also much more vulnerable.
They calculate there are 8.4 million people in the UK who need to avoid going outdoors to limit a spike in fatalities.
But to help Brits better understand their own chance of dying from the bug, the team has created a Coronavirus risk calculator.
Lead researcher Dr Amitava Banerjee said – Older people, those with one or more underlying conditions and their carers are asking what easing the lockdown might mean for their health.
Using data modeling on a number of different scenarios, our findings show the mortality risk for these vulnerable groups increases significantly and could lead to thousands of avoidable deaths.
Our calculator is the first to give doctors, health experts, and the public a personalized risk from the Coronavirus.
It is very much an early prototype, and the plan is to continue to simplify it so it can be used by the wider public.
It works by taking into account age, sex, and underlying health conditions and assessing their effect on the coronavirus mortality under different scenarios.
Currently, the calculator does appear to be suffering some glitches and isn’t working for some users.
Before the pandemic, the average risk of a person under-70 dying in any given year was 0.6%.
For those with an underlying health condition is was 3.5%, while for Brits with two it rises to 7.5%.
Dr Banerjee added – Our calculator provides one-year mortality risks for common conditions by age and sex.
In the current emergency, there is an urgent need to develop a better understanding of who is at risk based on reliable health data.
Commenting on the findings Professor Sarah Harper, from Oxford University, said – This is an important paper that shows the complexity of mortality risk factors and how age, sex, and underlying health conditions combine under different conditions to increase risk.
It highlights the difference between men and women and the importance of identifying underlying health conditions.
Importantly, the authors suggest that this enables a publicly available tool for individuals to use to develop a better understanding of who is at risk based on reliable health data.
The calculator can be found at: covid19-phenomics.org/PrototypeOurRiskCoV.html
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